Following the English Local Elections last week, the results are in following Labour’s first proper post-election test, and the message they sent was resounding. Following last Thursday’s poll what is evident is that there has been a significant move away from the two ‘major’ parties, with the Conservatives having suffered the biggest defeat losing 674 council seats. The Labour Party did not get away unscathed either, with Keir Starmer’s party losing 187 council seats as well as the Helsby and Runcorn by-election, which was taken by Reform UK by the narrowest of margins – just 6 votes.
The clear winner of this year’s set of elections, however, was undeniably the Reform Party, who made significant gains with a whopping 677 council seats won, several Mayoral seats and control of ten councils in England.
Aside from Reform, both the Liberal Democrats and the Greens also improved on their previous positions, however both parties will be looking at what might have been having seen the sweeping gains made by Reform.
But what can this tell us about what we can expect in Wales in next years’ Senedd elections?
We’re heading into an important year in Welsh politics with the Senedd elections happening in May 2026, it is important to consider the current political climate and how this may impact Wales going forward. The next Senedd election increases the size of the Senedd from 60 to 96 Members, using closed proportional lists. Current polling shows that Labour’s long-held dominance in Wales could come to an end with a recent ITV Cymru Wales opinion poll suggesting Plaid Cymru and Reform UK will battle to be the biggest party heading into the next Senedd term.
Given Reform’s successes here and the current Senedd seat projections, the party will certainly be hoping to replicate this performance in the 2026 election. Indeed, a strong showing in the Senedd elections would represent their biggest political win yet. The question is, then, will Reform momentum in local elections in England hold for another 12 months? And if the party does manage to replicate this performance, will they be able to maintain a strong presence in the Senedd? As a frame of reference, in 2016, UKIP secured impressive wins in the then ‘Welsh Assembly’ elections, ultimately returning 7 AMs. Within weeks, this alliance broke down and by the end of that term the party was left with one sole AM. The question remains whether Nigel Farage – this time under the Reform banner – would be able to maintain their position over an entire Senedd term. If this did happen, could we potentially also see a shift in the Welsh policy landscape in terms of support for renewables given Reform’s opposition to net zero to date?
Plaid Cymru will also be looking to capitalise on Labour’s electoral downturn and become the largest party in the Senedd following the next election. With a year to go before Wales heads to the ballot box, the recent Barn Cymru poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University, suggests Rhun ap Iorwerth’s party is currently in a strong position to achieve this. The poll put the party on 30%, ahead of Reform on 25%, with Welsh Labour lagging behind on 18%. A Plaid Cymru-led government in 2026 would mark an end to Labour’s 26 year control of Cardiff Bay and almost certainly spell change for the Welsh policy landscape.
However, even in the face of recent polling numbers, it is important to remember that the Labour Party have been dominant in Wales for over 100 years. Throughout this time, the party has continued to show itself able to bounce back. The current polling is certainly significant and does potentially indicate that 2026 may be the year Labour loses its grip on government in Wales, but a year is a very long time in politics, and nothing is set in stone.
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So how does all of this affect your Welsh projects? What do you need to be doing now to help stand yourself in the best possible position?
Get in touch with the T47 team to discuss strategy and approach: [email protected]
