Summary
The results are in following Labour’s first proper post-election test, and the message they sent was resounding. Following last Thursday’s poll what is evident is that there has been a significant move away from the two ‘major’ parties, with the Conservatives having suffered the biggest defeat losing 674 council seats. The Labour Party did not get away unscathed either, with Keir Starmer’s party losing 187 council seats as well as the Helsby and Runcorn by-election, which was taken by Reform UK by the narrowest of margins – just 6 votes.
The clear winner of this year’s set of elections, however, was undeniably the Reform Party, who made significant gains with a whopping 677 council seats won, Dame Andrea Jenkyns beating the Conservatives to become Mayor of Greater Lincolnshire with a majority of almost 40,000, and Reform’s Luke Campbell winning the Hull and East Yorkshire Mayoral contest with 48,491 votes. Reform have also taken control of ten councils and came second to Labour in the Mayoral elections for West of England, Doncaster, and North Tyneside.
Aside from Reform, both the Liberal Democrats and the Greens also improved on their previous positions, however both parties will be looking at what might have been having seen the sweeping gains made by Reform.
A breakdown of the council seats, and the changes is outlined below:
- Reform – 677 (+677)
- Liberal Democrats – 370 (+163)
- Conservatives – 319 (-674)
- Labour – 98 (-187)
- Independent – 89 (-20)
- Greens – 79 (+44)
Greater Lincolnshire Mayor and Lincolnshire County Council
Another race that T47 were interested in was perhaps Reform’s most significant win of the English local elections, the battle for Greater Lincolnshire Mayor. In the first election for this position, this contest was won by Reform’s Dame Andrea Jenkyns – a former Conservative MP who defected to Reform in 2024. Securing 42% of the vote, Jenkyns’ win marks a significant breakthrough for Reform earning the party’s first executive office – alongside picking up the Hull and East Yorkshire Mayoralty across the other side of the Humber too – and signalling their growing influence in UK politics. Jenkyn’s victory has significant implications for energy development and net zero projects in Lincolnshire. A prominent net zero critic, Jenkyns fought this election under the slogan “net stupid zero” and has previously described the target as a “vanity project”, “economic madness”, and “a way to tax and control people”.
Hull and East Yorkshire Mayor
Reform claimed their second mayoral position last Thursday in Hull and East Yorkshire, with former Olympic boxer Luke Campbell winning the first ever mayoral contest for this region. Campbell received 48,491 votes in total, 10,981 more than Liberal Democrat candidate Mike Ross who came in second place. Campbell has said little publicly about net zero and energy developments, with his campaign for Hull and East Yorkshire Mayor centring around cutting local council spending waste. Questioned on the topic in a local hustings, Campbell claimed he supported achieving net zero goals if this meant creating more jobs. Notable in a region which has seen significant investment and redevelopment in the past decade from the offshore wind sector. However, Campbell also stated that net zero is “not achievable”.
Nottinghamshire, Derbyshire and Staffordshire County Councils
Elsewhere in what some might say has been fast becoming the UK’s ‘solar belt’ – hosting a number of the largest utility scale solar proposals in the country – Nottinghamshire, Derbyshire and Staffordshire County Councils, which were all also previously held by the Conservatives, were taken as part of the Reform surge.
West of England Mayor, Gloucestershire County, and Wiltshire Councils
There were several key races that T47 were particularly invested in. One race was the contest for West of England Mayor, which the Labour Party won from the Conservatives in 2021. In the weeks leading up to the election, it was unclear which party would emerge the victor of this race with a potential 5 candidates in place to take the seat. Labour’s Helen Godwin was ultimately successful, securing the position for the party and earning 25% of the vote share. However, it was a close contest with Reform’s Arron Banks coming in at second place with 22% of the vote share. There were less than 6,000 votes between Godwin and Banks.
Gloucestershire County and Wiltshire councils however are now under no overall control. The Conservatives lost a number of seats to Reform and the Liberal Democrats, and subsequently relinquished controlled both councils. Who governs these authorities for the next term will become clearer in the next couple of weeks as both authorities head towards their Annual General Meetings.
An indication of trends to watch out for in Wales in 2026?
As these are English local elections, there are no Welsh-specific results to discuss. However, as we’re heading into an important year in Welsh politics with the Senedd elections happening in May 2026, it is important to consider the current political climate and how this may impact Wales going forward. The next Senedd election increases the size of the Senedd from 60 to 96 Members, using closed proportional lists. Current polling shows that Labour’s long-held dominance in Wales could come to an end with a recent ITV Cymru Wales opinion poll suggesting Plaid Cymru and Reform UK will battle to be the biggest party heading into the next Senedd term.
Given Reform’s successes here and the current Senedd seat projections, the party will certainly be hoping to replicate this performance in the 2026 election. Indeed, a strong showing in the Senedd elections would represent their biggest political win yet. The question is, then, will Reform momentum in local elections in England hold for another 12 months? And if the party does manage to replicate this performance, will they be able to maintain a strong presence in the Senedd? As a frame of reference, in 2016, UKIP secured impressive wins in the then ‘Welsh Assembly’ elections, ultimately returning 7 AMs. Within weeks, this alliance broke down and by the end of that term the party was left with one sole AM. The question remains whether Nigel Farage – this time under the Reform banner – would be able to maintain their position over an entire Senedd term. If this did happen, could we potentially also see a shift in the Welsh policy landscape in terms of support for renewables given Reform’s opposition to net zero to date?
Plaid Cymru will also be looking to capitalise on Labour’s electoral downturn and become the largest party in the Senedd following the next election. With a year to go before Wales heads to the ballot box, the recent Barn Cymru poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University, suggests Rhun ap Iorwerth’s party is currently in a strong position to achieve this. The poll put the party on 30%, ahead of Reform on 25%, with Welsh Labour lagging behind on 18%. A Plaid Cymru-led government in 2026 would mark an end to Labour’s 26 year control of Cardiff Bay and almost certainly spell change for the Welsh policy landscape.
However, even in the face of recent polling numbers, it is important to remember that the Labour Party have been dominant in Wales for over 100 years. Throughout this time, the party has continued to show itself able to bounce back. The current polling is certainly significant and does potentially indicate that 2026 may be the year Labour loses its grip on government in Wales, but a year is a very long time in politics, and nothing is set in stone.
Conclusion
The undisputed winner of the 2025 English local elections was the Reform Party. This election has demonstrated that the political climate in the UK is changing, with the two traditional parties seeing significant losses and the smaller parties making substantial gains.
It is, however, important to contextualise this win. Whilst Reform made significant gains, local elections often see a rise in votes for smaller parties, with people using these elections as an opportunity to express their dissatisfaction with the national government or their usual party. Moreover, although the two traditional parties faced some very significant losses this is not altogether surprising. Labour is currently in government, and the governing party often performs poorly in the local elections. Whilst the Conservatives did lose a substantial 674 seats this was compared to the high watermark they were defending from 2021, and losses were always likely as they party sought to re-establish itself following their electoral woes in the 2024 General Election.
Regardless of the context, Reform has made significant gains in this election, winning many seats and taking control of several councils across England. Campaigning against net zero targets and sustainability measures has become a key Reform policy, with their 2024 General Election manifesto pledging to cut back on net zero spending and to move away from renewables. Consequently, many renewable energy developments in particular may now find themselves operating in a somewhat less receptive local political context as a result, across parts of the country. The need for large scale renewables and infrastructure projects to build strong relationships with local stakeholders, engage meaningfully with local communities, and demonstrate local support where this exists, is therefore only likely to become ever more important over the next four years.