GENERAL ELECTION 2024: SOUTH WEST CLUSTER UPDATE

Summary 

The Labour Party has won the general election, winning a total of 412 seats (+211) with 33.7% of the vote – the smallest vote share of a winning party in decades. The Conservatives suffered their worst election performance in the party’s 200-year history, winning a total of 121 seats (-251) and 23.7% of the vote. The Liberal Democrats regained their position as the third largest party in Parliament, winning a total of 72 seats (+64) with 12.2% of the vote – the best performance of a third party since 1923. Reform UK experienced a significant upswing in support, winning a total of 5 seats with 14.3% of the vote, whilst the Green Party of England and Wales won 4 seats with 6.7% of the vote. 

Keir Starmer becomes the first Labour leader since Tony Blair to win a general election and will unveil his government’s legislative agenda in the King Speech’s on 17 July. 

What happened in the South West? 

In the South West, after a near decade of electoral dominance, the Conservatives experienced significant losses at the hands of both Labour and the Liberal Democrats. In the 2019 General Election, the Conservatives won 48 seats across the region, compared to Labour’s 6 and the Liberal Democrats’ 1. 

In 2024, the fortunes of each party were reversed, with the Conservatives losing seats across the region. Constituencies across Wiltshire remained resilient, however, with East Wiltshire, Salisbury and South West Wiltshire remaining in Tory hands whilst seats all around were falling to Labour and the Lib Dems. The Green Party also saw success in Bristol Central, overturning a significant majority to defeat Shadow Culture Secretary Thangam Debbonaire; their first gain since 2010 and the first of four wins at this election. 

Following their near wipeout in 2015, the Liberal Democrats have successfully managed to reclaim their traditional heartlands, witnessing massive swings across Somerset, where they took six out of the seven seats in the county area, as well as in Dorset, Devon, and parts of Gloucestershire. In the process, the party defeated a litany of serving and former Cabinet ministers, notably Justice Secretary Alex Chalk in Cheltenham, Science Secretary Michelle Donelan in Melksham and Devizes, and the Minister for Illegal Immigration, Michael Tomlinson in Mid Dorset and North Poole. 

For their part, the Labour Party experienced an historic breakthrough in the South West, winning seats like Forest of Dean, Gloucester, and Stroud from the Conservatives, whereas areas like Weston-super-Mare elected the first Labour MP in its history. Likewise, in Bournemouth East and Bournemouth West, which have been Conservative seats since 1922, Labour unseated Tory stalwarts Tobias Ellwood and Conor Burns, illustrating Labour’s march into areas that, just months prior, the party had not expected to win. Labour also claimed the seats of current and former Cabinet members – from former Business Secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg in North East Somerset and Hanham to Conservative party heavyweight Liam Fox in Somerset North. 

The South West region can therefore be seen very much as a microcosm of the overall national results, with Conservative collapse feeding into Labour’s largest majority since 1997 and the best showing for the Liberal Democrats since their predecessor, the Liberal Party in 1923.  

APPENDIX – South West results 

Bristol and Gloucestershire 
Seat  New MP  Predecessor  Majority  % change in vote from 2019 
Bristol Central  Carla Denyer (Green)  Thangam Debbonaire (LAB)  10,407  +30.6% 
Bristol East  Kerry McCarthy (LAB)  Kerry McCarthy (LAB)  6,606  -13.4% 
Bristol North East  Damien Egan (LAB)  Kerry McCarthy / Darren Jones / Damien Egan (LABs) / Jack Lopresti (CON)  11,167  -5.0% 
Bristol North West  Darren Jones (LAB)  Darren Jones / Thangam Debbonaire (LABs)  15,709  +0.8% 
Bristol South  Karin Smyth (LAB)  Karin Smyth (LAB)  7,666  -8.9% 
Cheltenham  Max Wilkinson (LD)  Alex Chalk (CON)  7,210  +4.6% 
Filton and Bradley Stoke  Claire Hazelgrove (LAB)  Jack Lopresti / Luke Hall (CONs) / Damien Egan (LAB)  10,000  +9.7% 
Forest of Dean  Matt Bishop (LAB)  Mark Harper (CON)  278  +5.2 
Gloucester  Alex McIntyre (LAB)  Richard Graham (CON)  3,431  +0.9% 
North Cotswolds  Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (CON)  Geoffrey Clifton-Brown / Siobhan Ballie / Laurence Robertson (CONs)  3,357  -24.6 
South Cotswolds  Roz Savage (LD)  Geoffrey Clifton-Brown / James Gray (CONs)  4,973  +16.3 
Stroud  Dr Simon Opher (LAB)  Siobhan Ballie / Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (CONs)  11,411  +4.8% 
Tewkesbury  Cameron Thomas (LD)  Laurence Robertson / Alex Chalk / Richard Graham (CONs)  6,262  +20.7 
Thornbury and Yate  Claire Young (LD)  Luke Hall / Jack Lopresti (CONs)   3,014  +6.4% 
Wiltshire and Somerset 
Seat  New MP  Predecessor  Majority  % change in vote share from 2019 
Bath  Wera Hobhouse (LD)  Wera Hobhouse (LD) / Jacob Rees-Mogg (CON)  11,218  -12.1% 
Bridgwater  Ashley Fox (CON)  Ian Liddell-Grainger / James Heappey (CONs)  1,349  -27.3% 
Chippenham  Sarah Gibson (LD)  Michelle Donelan / James Gray (CONs)  8,138  +15.2% 
East Wiltshire  Danny Kruger (CON)  Danny Kruger / Robert Buckland / John Glen (CONs)  4,716  -30.2% 
Frome and East Somerset  Anna Sabine (LD)  Jacob Rees-Mogg / James Heappey (CONs) / Sarah Dyke (LD)  5,415  +12.0% 
Glastonbury and Somerton  Sarah Dyke (LD)  James Heappey / Marcus Fysh (CONs) / Sarah Dyke (LD)   6,611  +11.8% 
Melksham and Devizes  Brian Mathew (LD)  James Gray / Michelle Donelan / Danny Kruger / Andrew Murrison (CONs)  3,190  +12.7% 
Salisbury  John Glen (CON)  John Glen / Andrew Murrison (CONs)  3,807  -21.1% 
Somerset North  Sadik Al-Hassan (LAB)  Liam Fox (CON)  639  +10.6% 
Somerset North East and Hanham  Dan Norris (LAB)  Jacob Rees-Mogg (CON) / Damian Egan (LAB)  5,319  +14.4% 
South West Wiltshire  Andrew Murrison (CON)  Andrew Murrison / Michelle Donelan (CONs)  3,243  -24.5% 
Swindon North  Will Stone (LAB)  Justin Tomlinson (CON)  4,103  +10.1% 
Swindon South  Heidi Alexander (LAB)  Robert Buckland / Justin Tomlinson (CONs)  9,606  +8.2% 
Taunton and Wellington  Gideon Amos (LD)  Rebecca Pow (CON)  11,939  +12.1% 
Wells and Mendip Hills  Tessa Munt (LD)  James Heappey / John Penrose / Ian Liddell-Grainger / Liam Fox (CONs)  11,121  +16.1% 
Weston-super-Mare  Dan Aldridge (LAB)  John Penrose (CON)  4,409  +10.4% 
Yeovil  Adam Dance (LD)  Marcus Fysh (CON) / Sarah Dyke (LD)  12,268  +17.4% 
 Dorset & Devon 
Seat  New MP  Predecessor  Majority  % change in vote share from 2019 
Bournemouth East  Tom Hayes (LAB)  Tobias Ellwood (CON)  5,479  +8.1% 
Bournemouth West  Jessica Toale (LAB)  Conor Burns / Robert Syms (CONs)   3,224  +4.6% 
Central Devon  Mel Stride (CON)  Mel Stride (CON)  61  -23.8% 
Christchurch  Christopher Chope (CON)  Christopher Chope / Simon Hoare (CONs)  7,455  -29.8% 
Exeter  Steve Race (LAB)  Ben Bradshaw (LAB)  11,937  -9.5% 
Exmouth and Exeter East  David Reed (CON)  Simon Jupp / Mel Stride (CONs) / Ben Bradshaw (LAB)  121  -21.1% 
Honiton and Sidmouth  Richard Foord (LD)  Simon Jupp (CON) / Richard Foord (LD)  6,700  +35.8 
Mid Dorset and North Poole  Vikki Slade (LD)  Michael Tomlinson / Conor Burns (CONs)  1,352  +13.4% 
Newton Abbot  Martin Wrigley (LD)  Anne Marie Morris (CON)  2,246  +9.5% 
North Devon  Ian Roome (LD)  Selaine Saxby (CON)  6,744  +12.4% 
North Dorset  Simon Hoare (CON)  Simon Hoare (CON)  1,589  -27.2% 
Plymouth Moor View  Fred Thomas (LAB)  Johnny Mercer (CON) / Luke Pollard (LAB)  5,604  +8.9% 
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport  Luke Pollard (LAB)  Luke Pollard (LAB)  13,328  +1.0% 
Poole  Neil Duncan-Jordan  Robert Syms (CON)  18  +11.1% 
South Devon  Caroline Voaden (LD)  Anthony Mangnall (CON)  7,127  +17.8% 
South Dorset  Lloyd Hatton (LAB)  Richard Drax / Chris Loder (CONs)  1,048  +7.1% 
South West Devon  Rebecca Smith (CON)  Gary Streeter / Geoffrey Cox (CONs)  2,112  -28.3% 
Tiverton and Minehead  Rachel Gilmour (LD)  Ian Liddell-Grainger / Rebecca Pow (CONs) / Richard Foord (LD)  3,507  +19.1% 
Torridge and Tavistock  Geoffrey Cox (CON)  Geoffrey Cox (CON)  3,950  -28.2% 
Torbay  Steve Darling (LD)  Kevin Foster / Anthony Mangnall (CONs)  5,349  +16.9% 
West Dorset  Edward Morello (LD)  Chris Loder (CON)  7,789  +18.5% 

Boundary changes: Please note, following the Boundary Commission review, the 2024 General Election was contested on new parliamentary boundaries, the first such change since 2010. In the South West, the number of seats has increased from 55 to 58, necessitating a significant redrawing of constituency boundaries.