Senedd Reform: How Electoral Changes Impact Developers in Wales

On 27 June 2023, then-First Minister Mark Drakeford announced in his Annual Legislative Statement that the Welsh Government was to bring forward two Bills: one to reform how the Senedd is elected and another to introduce gender quotas for election candidates, which has since been scrapped. In the following blog, Account Executive Bethan Williams explores the context behind the Bills, their content, and implications for developers.

Why does the Senedd need reforming?

Since its inception in 1999, the Senedd has undergone significant transformation. Initially devoid of legislative authority, it has since expanded its legislative competence and taxation powers. Today, the Senedd governs a wide array of crucial areas including housing, healthcare, social services, and environmental policy.

The Welsh Government contends that the Senedd’s membership has not kept pace with its growing legislative responsibilities. This concern was highlighted by research conducted by the Expert Panel on Electoral Reform in 2017 and the Committee on Senedd Electoral Reform in 2020, both of which emphasised the urgent need for change.

Presently, the Senedd consists of 60 members, a stark contrast to the 126 members of the Scottish Parliament and the 90 members at Stormont, the Northern Ireland Assembly. The Reforming Our Senedd report advocated for a bolstered Senedd with 96 members, aligning more closely with the representation of similarly sized countries. The report also recommended the implementation of the D’Hondt formula, a system of proportional representation where electors vote for a party on a closed or open list rather than an individual on polling day. Under the system, seats are allocated according to vote share, with each party’s total votes repeatedly divided until all seats are filled.

The second area of concern raised by Welsh Government relates to female representation in the Senedd. Wales became the first country to elect a completely gender balanced parliament in 2003. However, 20 years later, women have become an under-represented group in the Senedd – comprising 43% of Members and 31% of candidates in the last Senedd Election. Under the new legislation, parties would have a proportional list, comprising equally of both men and women – candidates are elected based off their position in the list.

What changes are being proposed?

The Senedd Cymru (Members and Elections) Bill translates the key insights of the Reforming Our Senedd report into tangible reforms. This bill brings several significant changes: firstly, expanding the Senedd to 96 members and adopting the D’Hondt system. Additionally, it entails the creation of 16 new multi-member Senedd constituencies, based on the 32 new Welsh Parliamentary constituencies, with each Westminster constituency paired together to create 16 Senedd constituencies. Moreover, the number of Welsh Ministers will increase from 12 to 17, with provisions allowing for potential further expansion to 18 or 19 with Senedd approval. Furthermore, the bill introduces a stipulation that individuals residing outside of Wales are ineligible to stand for election. Lastly, elections will transition to a four-year cycle post-2026, departing from the current five-year interval.

Supporters of a larger Senedd contend that the people of Wales are not receiving the representation from political figures that they deserve, with Wales consistently exhibiting some of the lowest voter turnout rates in the UK.[1] Modernising and reforming the Welsh political system could reignite democratic participation and engagement among citizens. Additionally, a larger Senedd could facilitate more rigorous legislative scrutiny through a more diverse range of politicians, ultimately resulting in improved governance for Wales.

The Senedd Cymru (Electoral Candidate Lists) Bill, introduced March 2024 aims to make the Senedd more effective by ensuring that candidates put forward for election are representative of the gender balance of Wales. If passed, each constituency is to ensure that women comprise at least half of their election candidates. Furthermore, at least half of the constituency candidate lists are led by women. For each candidate on a list who isn’t female, the subsequent candidate is, ensuring gender parity throughout. This Bill was subsequently dropped on September 16th, 2024.

The Senedd Cymru (Members and Elections) Act received Royal Assent on 24 June 2024, setting the stage for its implementation in time for the 2026 Senedd Election.

Larger constituencies and local representation – the proposals

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In September 2024, the Democracy and Boundary Commission Cymru published its initial proposals for Wales’ 16 new Senedd constituencies.[2] The map below sets out the proposed changes:[3]

The boundaries of the proposed new constituencies are restricted by the provisions of the Senedd Cymru (Members and Elections) Act, which stipulates that there should be a fixed number of 16 constituencies created from the pairing of the 32 Welsh UK Parliamentary constituencies. There is consequently limited scope for serious revisions.

The Commission will hold a consultation on the initial proposals throughout September before issuing a revised proposal in December, ahead of finalisation in March 2025.

Analysis

The transition to an entirely proportional Senedd poses a number of implications for voters, politicians and political parties.

First, the Act will shorten the electoral cycle to four years, bringing Wales into alignment with other democratic nations, such as the United States and Germany. Some argue that this makes politicians more accountable to voters, with shorter intervals between elections and a greater focus on delivery. There is also the possibility of a greater turnover in elected officials, providing opportunities for new candidates and parties to bring fresh ideas into the political arena. Conversely, the increased regularity of elections could exacerbate voter fatigue and deepen political disengagement, in turn aggravating the exact issue that electoral reform is intended to alleviate.

The proposed use of the D’Hondt system has also been criticised. Designed to balance proportionality with stable government, D’Hondt specifically favours larger parties over smaller ones, establishing a minimum popular vote threshold which a party must meet or exceed in order to receive an allocation of the seats. Whilst lauded for locking extremist parties out of legislatures, the threshold can also exclude legitimate smaller parties from the democratic process, undermining claims around proportionality and representation.

The system also removes the ability of the citizen to cast their vote for a specific individual, eroding the direct relationship between representative and constituent which has long been a hallmark of British democracy. Likewise, by reducing the prominence of individual candidates and increasing the focus on party affiliations, the system may perpetuate a sense of detachment between citizens and their elected representatives. This could have a counter-intuitive effect and decreased voter engagement and participation, undermining the democratic process in the long run. Furthermore, elected officials may feel less beholden to the interests and concerns of individual constituents if their mandate primarily stems from party allegiance rather than personal support.

For some critics, the bill is poorly timed and expensive. Expanding the Senedd and adjusting electoral processes is likely to entail significant costs, which some have argued could be spent better elsewhere, such as healthcare. The total cost of electing 36 additional Senedd members alongside its physical expansion is expected to total £17.8m per year, alongside an £8m one off cost to set up the new system. Welsh Government argues that this figure represents only a small fraction of the £24bn overall Welsh budget.[4]

Beyond electoral processes and formulas, the Act also seeks to make interventions in how candidates are selected, specifically around gender representation. In 2003, Wales became the first country in the world to elect a legislature with women representing 50% of its seats. Since then, that proportion has fallen, and currently only 43% of MSs are women.[5] Women currently comprise 51% of the population in Wales, making candidate lists with an equal gender split theoretically more reflective of Wales’ gender demographics. However, the bill appears predominantly focused on gender representation and overlooks other crucial demographic factors such as ethnicity, disability and age.

Furthermore, the Senedd Cymru (Electoral Candidate Lists) Bill has faced criticism from the Equality and Human Rights Commission (EHRC), the United Kingdom’s equality watchdog. The EHRC expressed concerns that the legislation could potentially contravene the Equality Act (2010) if candidates are permitted to self-identify as women, regardless of their legal sex. However, Welsh Government has asserted that political parties will risk legal action if they fail to provide accurate information regarding gender. It is important to note that the issue of self-identification extends beyond the Senedd’s jurisdiction and resonates within a broader national discourse, exemplified by the UK Government’s rejection of self-identification legislation in Scotland. Presiding Officer Elin Jones has also questioned whether the Senedd possesses the authority to enforce gender equality quotas or if this falls within the reserved powers of the UK Government. This is likely to have fed into the Welsh Government’s decision to delay and then scrap this proposed reform.

How can developers navigate this new landscape?

The inception of a renewed Senedd poses a number of implications for developers and the wider sector, and understanding Wales’ new democratic framework will be critical for the success of future planning applications.

Coalition government – in directly proportional electoral systems, it is very rare for a party to win an outright majority, meaning the likelihood of coalitions markedly increases. It is therefore likely that Wales will become a more competitive electoral stage, with Welsh Labour’s unipolar dominance no longer assured. This will likely lead to the creation of informal voting blocs on the left and right of the political spectrum, with the largest party in the Senedd forced to work closely with smaller parties through either direct coalition or confidence and supply agreements on key issues. This will mean that the strategic direction of Welsh Government will be shaped by competing political parties with distinct policy agendas, with compromise and cooperation likely to become a mainstay of the new chamber. This could lead to a more conciliatory form of politics in a break with the adversarial nature of Westminster or further entrench divisions and lead to parliamentary gridlock.

Primacy of political parties – the decision to embrace the closed list system, where voters pick the party with little knowledge of who their candidates are, means that political parties will have the power to decide who is selected as a candidate for each multi-member constituency, and, crucially, in what order. This could be used as a means of enforcing party discipline, with party loyalists rewarded with a higher place on the list (meaning they are more likely to be elected) as opposed to those who frequently break from the agreed policy position. This could mean, in practice, more rigid politicians who take their cue from their respective party as opposed to the constituents they represent. This could harm democratic legitimacy, particularly if voters feel that politicians are self-selecting their candidates for the sake of party management.

Nevertheless, the dilution of the relationship between voters and one single representative could make it easier for politicians to overrule the sentiments of local communities and take unpopular decisions, for instance, supporting a renewable energy project. With the creation of larger constituencies, MSs could be emboldened to speak their own mind, in the knowledge that a couple of hundred votes in one corner of the constituency is unlikely to have a significant overall impact. Similarly, the creation of larger constituencies means that the economic benefits of a project, such as supply chains, are likely to be of greater relevance, with a greater number of constituents set to benefit. This could allow developers to contextualise any opposition with reference to the tangible benefits for other residents of the constituency.

Local representation – given the large size of constituencies, it might be the case that some developments receive little interest from MSs if none of the six are from that area, undermining local representation and political scrutiny. The abolition of local constituency members is an innovation not currently present in the UK and could undermine the ability of developers to build constructive relationships with individual politicians. This could mean a greater focus on engagement with Local Planning Authorities and Community Councils during pre-application consultation.

Conversely, the presence of six MSs of differing political colours, could lead to enhanced political scrutiny around development, with each party representative(s) competing to be seen as the true ‘champion’ of their constituents. This risks the further politicisation of planning policy and the loss of consensus around the climate emergency and economic growth.

Conclusion

The proposed reforms to the Senedd outlined in the Senedd Cymru (Electoral Candidate Lists) Bill and the Senedd Cymru (Members and Elections) Bill have far-reaching implications across the political landscape of Wales.

While the reforms hold the promise of enhancing democratic participation and representation in Wales, developers must prepare for a shifting regulatory landscape and evolving political dynamics. By staying informed, engaging with policymakers, and adapting their strategies accordingly, developers can navigate the challenges and opportunities presented by the reformed Senedd to contribute positively to Wales’ sustainable development and growth.

[1] Welsh Parliament, Senedd Research, Election 2021: how many people voted? 12 May 2021. Accessed via: https://research.senedd.wales/research-articles/election-2021-how-many-people-voted/

[2] Democracy and Boundary Commission Cymru, 2026 Review: Initial Proposals, 3 September 2024. Accessed via: https://www.dbcc.gov.wales/reviews/09-24/2026-review-initial-proposals

[3] BBC News, Huge seat part of plans for more Senedd politicians, 3 September 2024. Accessed via: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c05jvl65meno.

[4] BBC News, Senedd: 36 more Welsh Parliament members could cost extra £18m, 18 September 2023. Accessed via: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-66807278.

[5] Welsh Government, Senedd Reform, August 2024. Accessed via: https://www.gov.wales/senedd-reform.