In a fitting tribute, outgoing Account Manager Aaron Marchant has penned a final blog post, that is both expansive and far reaching, and indelibly optimistic about the state of play for the Green Agenda on a global scale. Whilst we at T47 are laser focused on supporting our clients deliver renewables projects for a greener future here in the UK, we can’t ignore the progress being made around the world.
In his final blog before he heads for ‘green’ pastures new, Aaron considers the inevitable progress towards a net zero future – the question is, will it come at the pace we need?
The Green Inevitability: A Note for Optimism
In the age of insecurity, optimism can appear impossible.
We live in a period of increasing global fragmentation, defined by conflict, competition, polarisation, and post-truth; amongst the noise, we often lose sight of progress and underestimate our agency as a species to shape a better, greener future.
But progress is happening. And with each passing day we can see clearer evidence that the transition to a greener future is not only a possibility, but an inevitability.
Across the globe, communities and countries are taking action to phase out polluting fossil fuels, cut greenhouse gas emissions, and invest heavily in the green technologies of the future.
To paraphrase the words of former Prime Minister Tony Blair: net zero ‘is a force of nature, not a policy: it is a fact’.
Trump’s America
Since re-entering the White House, President Donald Trump has moved to rapidly expand fossil fuel production while removing subsidies for clean energy and blocking green developments under construction.
Analysis by Carbon Brief based on an aggregation of modelling by various US researchers found that a second Trump presidency could lead to an additional 4 billion tonnes of carbon emissions by 2030 compared to President Joe Biden’s plans – equivalent to the combined annual emissions of the EU and Japan.[1]
(Click to view)Nevertheless, US renewable energy generation continues to break records. The US Energy Information Administration recently calculated that over a quarter of US electricity generated so far this year has come from renewable sources, with clean energy outstripping output from coal-fired plants since 2022. Indeed, solar generation in the first half of 2025 is up 32% on the same period last year, with over 50GW added since 2023 and a further 24GW expected to plug in by the end of the year.[2]
While Trump moves to undo many of the provisions contained in his predecessor’s Inflation Reduction Act, some politically expedient provisions are likely to remain and progress toward green energy remains difficult to completely reverse.
China and India: Emerging Superpowers
In climate discourse, China and India are oft cited by climate sceptics as evidence that emissions reductions in the West are cancelled out by the growth of fossil fuels in the economies of emerging powers.
This apathy toward green energy is not, however, one shared by Beijing or New Delhi.
China is the world’s leading investor in clean energy worldwide, spending $625 billion USD in 2024 – 31% of the global total of $2,033bn.[3] In 2024, clean energy generation growth met 84% of China’s electricity demand growth, and in the first half of 2025, clean power exceeded demand growth, cutting fossil fuel use by 2%.
Crucially, renewables are shifting from meeting new demand to cutting into the market share of coal and gas, driven by an exponential growth in wind and solar and increasing electrification. In the 12-months to June 2025, wind and solar generated 2,073 TWh – generated more electricity than all other clean sources combined for the first time. As a result, China, the world’s largest emitter of emissions, is now approaching the plateau point for fossil fuels.
(Click to view)India, for its part, has made significant progress in its decarbonisation journey, and as of December 2024, has a renewable energy capacity of over 200 GW, accounting for 45% of its total installed capacity.[4] In the first half of 2025, the subcontinent added a record 22 GW of renewable energy capacity – a 57% jump from the 14.2 GW installed during the same period last year. The new capacity includes 18.4 GW of solar, 3.5 GW of wind and 250 megawatts (MW) of bioenergy, marking the country’s highest-ever addition in any six-month period.[5]
(Click to view)Ultimately, as the global order shifts toward the east, the leadership of emerging powers like China and India will only solidify the transition toward a global green economy.
A Tale of Two Continents: Europe and Africa
The European Union remains a leading player in the energy transition with a record 71% of electricity generated from clean sources in 2024, compared to the global average of 41%.[6] In another significant milestone, 2024 marked the first year that the EU generated more electricity from solar than coal, with record solar growth helping the bloc to achieve five-consecutive years of declining fossil fuel power.
Consequently, while storage and grid infrastructure remain significant hurdles in the pathway to zero emissions, the continent that spearheaded the industrial revolution has made significant progress in leading the charge on decarbonisation.
Elsewhere, there is growing evidence of a solar boom in Africa as lesser developed countries embrace the opportunities of cheap power afforded by booming Chinese imports. Currently, while only South Africa and Egypt currently measure solar capacity in gigawatts, there is evidence of a take-off in solar across the continent.
Africa’s solar panel imports set a new record in the 12 months to June 2025, reaching 15,032 MW – a 60% increase on the previous 12 months.[7] The surge is widespread across the continent, with twenty countries setting new records for panel imports in the 12-months to June 2025, ranging from Algeria’s 33-fold increase to Ethiopia’s tripling. The impact could be huge: for example, if all imported solar panels to Sierra Leone over the past 12 months are installed, the electricity generation would alone power 61% of the country’s 2023 total need.
(Click to view)Consequently, while the longevity of this solar surge is unknown, and despite Africa’s continued reliance on oil imports, the embrace of low cost, low carbon technologies could herald a shift in African development as nations shift away from fossil fuel generation toward home-grown renewables.
In short, the continent that first industrialised and the continent that
A Note for Optimism
In summary, there is cause for optimism. The first and third most polluting nations are taking significant action to arrest fossil fuel use and transition to cleaner, cheaper technologies, while renewables continue to grow in countries, like the US, actively opposed to climate action.
Consequently, while net zero becomes a contested policy issue in the West, the investment trajectory of growing eastern powers give the green transition an aura of inevitability.
We, in Britain, would be wise to take note.
[1] Carbon Brief, Analysis: Trump election win could add 4bn tonnes to US emissions by 2030, March 2024. Accessed via: https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-trump-election-win-could-add-4bn-tonnes-to-us-emissions-by-2030/.
[2] PoliticoPRO, The IRA was bearing fruit. Then Trump killed it. July 2025. Accessed via: https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/eenews/2025/07/16/the-ira-was-bearing-fruit-then-trump-killed-it-00454486.
[3] Ember, China Energy Transition Review 2025, September 2025. Accessed via: https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/china-energy-transition-review-2025/.
[4] Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, What’s holding India back in its renewable energy transition? February 2025. Accessed via: https://ieefa.org/resources/whats-holding-india-back-its-renewable-energy-transition.
[5] Rystad Energy, India posts record biannual renewable energy capacity additions in first half of 2025, July 2025. Accessed via: https://www.rystadenergy.com/news/india-renewable-energy-capacity-additions.
[6] Ember, European Union, June 2025. Accessed via: https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/european-union/.
[7] Ember, The first evidence of a take-off in solar in Africa, August 2025. Accessed via: https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/the-first-evidence-of-a-take-off-in-solar-in-africa/.