Senedd Election 2026: What’s Changing and Why It Matters
In May this year, people across Wales will vote in a Senedd election unlike any before it. The election will be the first to take place following major reforms to how the Senedd is structured and how Members are elected. These changes mark a significant moment in the evolution of Welsh democracy, with implications not just for political parties and voters, but also for organisations operating in or engaging with Wales.
This blog sets out what is changing, how the new system will work, and why it matters.
A Bigger Senedd
From 2026, the Senedd will increase in size from 60 to 96 Members of the Senedd (MSs). This is the first time the size of the Welsh Parliament has changed since it was established in 1999.
The increase reflects the reality that the Senedd now holds far greater powers than it did at its creation, including responsibility for passing primary legislation and setting certain taxes. Independent reviews have consistently found that 60 Members were not enough to scrutinise government effectively. Increasing the number of MSs is intended to strengthen decision-making, oversight and representation across Wales.
New Constituencies, More Local Representation
The way Wales is divided for Senedd elections is also changing. Instead of single-member constituencies and regional lists, Wales will be divided into 16 larger constituencies, each electing six MSs.
These constituencies are formed by pairing UK parliamentary constituencies. While this arrangement will apply for the 2026 election, further boundary reviews are expected ahead of future elections. Under the new system, every voter will be represented by six MSs rather than one or two, increasing access to elected representatives.
A Simpler Ballot Paper
Voters will now cast one vote rather than two. That vote can be for a political party or an independent candidate.
Political parties will stand candidates using closed lists, meaning each party publishes a ranked list of candidates before the election. If a party wins seats in a constituency, those seats are filled by candidates from the top of the list downward. Independent candidates stand on their own and must receive enough support to win a seat outright.
This approach simplifies the voting process while supporting more proportional outcomes.
How Seats Are Allocated: The D’Hondt System
Seats in each six-member constituency will be allocated using the D’Hondt method, a form of proportional representation used widely across Europe.
In simple terms, votes are counted and seats are awarded one at a time. After each seat is allocated, the winning party’s vote total is divided, reducing its chance of immediately winning the next seat. This process continues until all six seats are filled.
The effect is that seats are shared out more fairly between parties based on their share of the vote. In practice, parties usually need around 15–17% of the vote in a constituency to win a seat, making it easier for mid-sized parties to gain representation while still rewarding higher levels of support.
What This Means for Politics in Wales
The new system is likely to change the political landscape in several ways:
- Election results should more closely reflect how people vote
- Smaller and mid-sized parties have a greater chance of winning seats
- Tactical voting is less necessary
- Coalition or minority governments are more likely
Polling and analysis from organisations such as ITV and YouGov suggest that future Senedd elections could be highly competitive, with relatively small changes in vote share having a significant impact on seat numbers under the D’Hondt system.
What This Means for Organisations
These reforms are not just important for politicians and voters. They also matter for organisations that engage with Welsh public policy, regulation, and decision-makers.
Key implications include:
- More MSs to engage with: With 96 Members and six MSs per constituency, organisations will have more points of contact and greater opportunity to build relationships.
- Greater diversity of representation: A more proportional system may lead to a wider range of political voices in the Senedd, requiring broader stakeholder engagement strategies.
- Stronger scrutiny and committee work: An expanded Senedd is likely to increase the volume and depth of scrutiny, consultations, and evidence-gathering.
- Changing political dynamics: Coalition politics may become the norm, meaning policy influence will increasingly depend on cross-party engagement rather than single-party relationships.
- More regional focus: Multi-member constituencies may encourage MSs to take a stronger interest in regional and sector-specific issues.
For organisations operating in Wales, understanding the new electoral system will be essential to navigating the post-2026 political environment effectively.
Looking Ahead
The 2026 Senedd election represents a step change in how Welsh democracy operates. By expanding the Senedd and introducing a fully proportional voting system, the reforms aim to deliver fairer representation and stronger governance.
For voters, the changes offer a clearer and more representative system. For organisations, they signal a more complex but potentially more accessible political landscape — one that rewards informed, proactive engagement.
We will continue to provide updates in the lead-up to the 2026 Senedd election, including manifesto analysis and commentary on key developments — stay tuned via our website and social media channels.