You can feel it in the political ether; the spectre of the next general election is looming ever larger, and with it, the introduction of new electoral boundaries which will, quite literally, redraw the political map. The South West, at present, has 55 constituencies, stretching from Gloucestershire to Cornwall. This tally is set to rise to 58 next year, influenced by the region’s population growth of 7.8% over the last decade (albeit indirectly).[1] *
This blog focuses on the boundary changes taking place in Bristol and its surroundings, primarily Somerset and South Gloucestershire, where there are a number of significant changes due to be enacted. First, the abolition of the existing Kingswood constituency and its amalgamation into the new constituencies of Bristol North East, Filton & Bradley Stoke, and North East Somerset & Hanham. Second, the creation of two new constituencies – Bristol Central, which supplants and renames the existing Bristol West seat, and Bristol North East, an entirely new electoral unit which takes much of its composition from the existing Bristol East and Kingswood constituencies.
Although the boundary changes are not expected to significantly alter the political landscape, the next general election is anticipated to be a ‘change election’, with Labour, and to a lesser extent the Liberal Democrats, looking to make gains at the Conservatives’ expense.
Current Boundaries (2010-2024)
New Boundaries (2024 – )
Note: Maps sourced from the Boundary Commission for England.
Bristol Central
Bristol Central is a new parliamentary constituency created from the existing Bristol West constituency. It will stretch from Clifton and Cotham to the city centre and harbourside. The constituency will be comprised of the following Bristol City Council wards: Ashley; Central; Clifton; Clifton Down; Cotham; Hotwells & Harbourside; and Redland. At the previous general election, all seven wards returned a plurality Labour vote. Following the local elections in May 2021, the constituency will be represented by 12 Green councillors and 2 Labour councillors.
The new constituency is a top target for the Green Party, with Cllr Carla Denyer, co-leader of the Green Party of England and Wales, selected to contest the seat. Thangam Debbonaire, current MP for Bristol West, and Shadow Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport, has been nominated to contest the seat for Labour. Though Ms Debbonaire commands a sizeable majority, and the seat would typically be described as ‘safe’ Labour, recent local election results suggest that the potential for a Green insurgency should not be overlooked. The contest is therefore likely to manifest as a close battle between both progressive parties.
Bristol North West
Bristol North West is a revised parliamentary constituency created from the existing seat of the same name and small sections of the existing Bristol West division. The constituency will be comprised of the following Bristol City Council wards: Avonmouth & Lawrence Weston; Bishopston & Ashley Down; Henbury & Brentry; Horfield; Southmead; Stoke Bishop; and Westbury-on-Trym & Henleaze. At the previous general election, five wards returned a plurality Labour vote, whilst two returned a plurality Conservative vote. Following the local elections in May 2021, the constituency will be represented by 9 Conservative councillors, 5 Labour councillors, and 2 Green councillors.
Until the 2017 General Election, Bristol North West was a bellwether seat, supporting the winning party at each general election since 1979. The seat was surprisingly gained by Labour in 2017, in a move attributed to energised younger voters, the popularity of Labour’s manifesto, and the salience of the Brexit issue. Despite this, the new constituency will likely remain marginal as the area of Bristol most sympathetic to the Conservative brand. The current MP, Darren Jones, has garnered a high profile in the current Parliament, previously chairing the Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) committee. Jones was recently promoted to Keir Starmer’s Shadow Cabinet as Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury. He is considered a ‘rising star’ in the party and should comfortably hold on to his seat next time around.
Bristol North East
Bristol North East is a new parliamentary constituency created primarily from Bristol East and Kingswood, as well as small sections of Bristol North West and Filton & Bradley Stoke. The constituency will be comprised of the following Bristol City Council wards: Eastville; Frome Vale; Hillfields; and Lockleaze. The constituency will also include the following South Gloucestershire Council wards: Kingswood; New Cheltenham; Staple Hill & Mangotsfield; and Woodstock. At the previous general election, 4 wards returned a plurality Labour vote, whilst 3 returned a plurality Conservative vote. The new constituency will stretch across two Local Authorities, each with differing election cycles; at present, the constituency will be represented by 13 Labour councillors, 3 Green councillors, and 1 Conservative councillor.
In July 2023, Damien Egan, mayor of Lewisham, was nominated as Labour’s candidate for the constituency, in a surprise decision which saw him selected over incumbent mayor of Bristol, Marvin Rees. Although the new seat incorporates areas which are currently represented by Conservative MPs, the constituency is widely expected to elect a Labour MP at the next election.
Bristol East
Bristol East is a revised parliamentary constituency created primarily from the existing seat of the same name, as well as sections of the existing Bristol West and Bristol South constituencies. The constituency will be comprised of the following Bristol City Council wards: Brislington East; Brislington West; Easton; Knowle; Lawrence Hill; St. George Central; St. George Troopers Hill; St. George West; and Stockwood. At the previous general election, 8 wards returned a plurality Labour vote, whilst 1 returned a plurality Conservative vote. Following the local elections in May 2021, the constituency will be represented by 7 Labour councillors, 3 Green councillors, 2 Liberal Democrat councillors, 2 Conservative councillors, and 2 Community Party councillors.
The current MP, Kerry McCarthy, has represented the seat since 2005 and is likely to win re-election. McCarthy currently serves as Shadow Minister for Climate Change.
Bristol South
Bristol South is a revised parliamentary constituency created from the existing seat of the same name. The constituency will be comprised of the following Bristol City Council wards: Bedminster; Bishopsworth; Filwood; Hartcliffe & Withywood; Hengrove & Whitchurch Park; Southville; and Windmill Hill. At the previous general election, 6 wards returned a plurality Labour vote and 1 returned a plurality Conservative vote. Following the local elections in May 2021, the constituency will be represented by 6 Labour councillors, 5 Green councillors, 3 Liberal Democrat councillors, and 2 Conservative councillors.
The current MP, Karin Smyth, has represented the seat since 2015 and is likely to win re-election. Smyth currently serves as Shadow Minister for Health.
Filton and Bradley Stoke
Filton and Bradley Stoke is a revised parliamentary constituency created from the existing seat of the same name, as well as parts of Kingswood and a small section of Thornbury & Yate. The constituency will be comprised of the following South Gloucestershire Council wards: Bradley Stoke North; Bradley Stoke South; Charlton & Cribbs; Emersons Green; Filton; Frenchay & Downend; Patchway Coniston; Stoke Gifford; Stoke Park & Cheswick; and Winterbourne. At the previous general election, 8 wards returned a plurality Conservative vote and 2 returned a plurality Labour vote. Following the local elections in May 2023, the constituency will be represented by 12 Conservative councillors, 7 Labour councillors, 2 Liberal Democrat councillors, and 1 Independent councillor.
The current MP, Jack Lopresti, has represented the seat since 2010, and is standing for re-election. In 2022, the Labour Party selected Claire Hazelgrove as candidate for the revised seat; she previously worked for Friends of the Earth, the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, and the Remain campaign ‘Britain Stronger In Europe’.
The constituency is a key marginal battleground with a small Conservative majority and is likely to be gained by Labour at the next general election.
Somerset North
Somerset North is a revised parliamentary constituency created from the existing seat of North Somerset. The constituency will be comprised of the following North Somerset Council wards: Backwell; Clevedon East; Clevedon South; Clevedon Walton; Clevedon West; Clevedon Yeo; Gordano Valley; Long Ashton; Nailsea Golden Valley; Nailsea West End; Nailsea Yeo; Nailsea Youngwood; Pill; Portishead East; Portishead North; Portishead South; Portishead West; Winford; and Wrington. At the previous general election, all 19 wards returned a plurality Conservative vote. Following the local elections in May 2023, the constituency will be represented by 8 Conservative councillors, 5 Independent councillors, 4 Green councillors, 3 Liberal Democrat councillors, and 2 Labour councillors.
The current MP, Dr Liam Fox, has represented the seat, and its predecessor, since 1992. The constituency is considered a ‘safe’ Conservative seat and is likely to be retained by the party at the next general election.
North East Somerset and Hanham
North East Somerset and Hanham is a revised parliamentary constituency created from half of the existing seat of North East Somerset and half of the abolished seat of Kingswood. The constituency will be comprised of the following Bath and North East Somerset Council wards: Chew Valley; Clutton & Farmborough; High Littleton; Keynsham East; Keynsham North; Keynsham South; Mendip; Paulton; Publow & Whitchurch; Saltford; and Timsbury. The constituency will also include the following South Gloucestershire Council wards: Bitton & Oldland Common; Hanham; Longwell Green; and Parkwall & Warmley. At the previous general election, all 15 wards returned a plurality Conservative vote. Following the local elections in May 2023, the constituency will be represented by 12 Liberal Democrat councillors, 9 Conservative councillors, 4 Labour councillors, and 1 Green councillor.
The current MP, Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg, has represented the seat since 2010 and has been selected to contest the new constituency. The outcome is likely to be far closer than at previous elections. The loss of a seat like North East Somerset and Hanham, whilst not certain, would almost certainly signal a terrible night for the Conservatives and indicate a large Labour majority at Westminster.
Thornbury and Yate
Thornbury and Yate is a revised parliamentary constituency created largely from the existing seat of the same name, as well as part of the current Filton & Bradley Stoke constituency. The constituency will be comprised of the following South Gloucestershire Council wards: Boyd Valley; Charfield; Chipping Sodbury & Cotswold Edge; Dodington; Frampton Cotterell; Pilning & Severn Beach; Severn Valley; Thornbury; Yate Central; and Yate North. At the previous general election, all 10 wards returned a plurality Conservative vote. Following the local elections in May 2023, the constituency will be represented by 18 Liberal Democrat councillors and 3 Conservative councillors.
The current MP, Luke Hall, has represented the seat since 2015. The main opposition party, the Liberal Democrats, have selected Cllr Claire Young, who took over the leadership of South Gloucestershire Council in 2023’s local elections, to contest the seat. Young previously stood as the Lib Dem candidate for the seat in the 2017 and 2019 general elections. The revised constituency is a key marginal battleground and will be a top target for the Liberal Democrats in their campaign to regain their former South West stronghold, which fell to the Conservatives in 2015.
Conclusion
Already mooted as a ‘change election’, the 2024 general election will witness the first deployment of new constituency boundaries, and possibly the first change of government, since 2010. In Bristol, Somerset, and South Gloucestershire, the political map is being redrawn, with the abolition of one seat (Kingswood), the creation of a brand-new constituency (Bristol North East), and the redrawing and renaming of Bristol West into Bristol Central. Other seats, like Bristol East and North East Somerset & Hanham, will experience significant revisions to their existing political boundaries.
In most of the new constituencies, the battle is a direct fight between the Conservatives and Labour, thereby holding wider significance for the formation of the next government. The seat of Bristol Central, on the other hand, will be a fierce contest between Labour and the Green Party, as the latter strives to realise its long-held ambition of a second Green MP. Similarly, the revised seat of Thornbury & Yate will see the Liberal Democrats compete against the Conservatives in an attempt to regain a seat which one formed part of the party’s southern heartland.
In many ways, then, the battle for Bristol (and its surroundings) will act as a microcosm for British politics nationally – its outcome will almost certainly provide an indication of the colour of the next government, illustrate the strength and weakness of both major parties, and indicate whether the two-party system’s hegemony over English politics is, once again, starting to slip.
*The population statistics used by the Boundary Commission records registered voters, not the actual population itself.
Sources
- Boundary Commission for England, Our final recommendations for South West, https://www.bcereviews.org.uk/node/6489
- Boundary Commission for England, The 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituency Boundaries in England – Volume three: Maps, South West https://boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-west/South%20West%20maps%20whole%20region.pdf
- Electoral Calculus, South West: New Constituency Boundaries 2023, https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/bdy2023_swest_summary.html
[1] The Office for National Statistics, Population and household estimates, England and Wales: Census 2021, https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/bulletins/populationandhouseholdestimatesenglandandwales/census2021